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2 years ago
It agrees? to the law Moura? productivity of devices has to double approximately everyone 18 (or 24) month, and their price? to remain at the former level. Practically from the moment of promotion of this hypothesis by the co-founder of Intel Gordon Moore talk on death of this law does not stop? after all exponential growth in the real world always has limit.

Whether Moore's law is dead: how about clouds?

Gordon Moore

How many still remained to Moore's law how it at the moment influences, say, pricing of cloudy resources and to what it leads?

Then now


How Moore declared, him? law? assumed not only decrease in the sizes of transistors, but also falling of their cost. As notes the Economist edition, the trend which can lead to the end of the law of Moore was shown several years ago:

When there were transistors 28 of nanometers, vendors have noted that fact that costs of their creation increase. New? faba? (plants on production of semiconductors) there are more than $6 billion. In other words: further decrease in the sizes of transistors possibly, but their cost will grow.

Thus development of cloud technologies does not so important focus at speed of operation of the processor desktop computers or notebooks. The main object of the analysis is not the processor, but server rack or even the whole data-center now. The question now sounds not as? how many transistors it is possible to push in the chip?, but? how it is economically possible to find room for all into data-center much?.

Therefore, journalists of Economist consider, Moore's law will not simply end, but it will become soon simple? the irrelevant? time.

Whether Moore's law is dead: how about clouds?

How are you with clouds


Last year in Google have declared accessibility of requirements of the law of Moore in the field of pricing of IaaS and other main cloud services that has provoked quite large-scale discussions (fuel to the fire was added also by the next reduction of prices of the services Amazon Web Services).

Whether Moore's law is dead: how about clouds?

Technology the consultant and blogger Abijah Deytcher have conducted own research with the purpose to find out, whether there correspond service prices to the AWS law of Moore.

Further exposure from its post in the blog:

Let's look at the cost of virtual instans on demand under control of Linux provided to AWS in the east of the United States. We use popular instans m3.meduim since its start in 2013, and to it used m1.medium. Both servers have 1 vCPU and 3,75 Gb of memory and this with the fact that have replaced class of the processor with m3.medium possess and have increased its productivity: instead of the classical? Intel Xeon? with frequency of 2,0 GHz the processor with microarchitecture of Ivy Bridge (Sandy Bridge), which frequency began to be used? 2,5 GHz. Also in m3.medium have replaced the main and secondary hard drives (HDD) with solid-state drives (SSD).

  • December, 2014: m3.medium, $0,070 per hour
  • December, 2013: m3.medium, $0,113 per hour
  • December, 2012: m1.medium, $0,13 per hour
  • December, 2011: m1.medium, $0,16 per hour

Within three years the cost of instans fell at first for 18,75%, then for 13,1%, and then for 38%. Cumulative falling of the price has made 56,25% in three years though the processor type has changed, and the frequency of its work has increased.

Whether this digit will be coordinated with Moore's law? In view of increase in productivity by 25%, and disregarding transition to solid-state drives, we see that in 36 months cost was reduced by 56% that is good indicator. But it is impossible to call it? decrease twice? for 18 (even 24) months.

[?]

With falling of cost of the services Amazon for 56%, those elements of infrastructure which submit to Moore's law probably have fallen in price on the corresponding value. If pricing has been caused only by reduction in cost of these elements, final falling of the prices of Amazon would be much less 56%.

In case with own infrastructure (DIY) only 40% of cost (calculations are given in material) are made by hardware. The remained 60%? these are costs of the electric power, cooling, and also payment for the room and work of employees.

Eventually the price for the DIY companies will grow by these 60%, and for users? the cloudy? services will fall, and the difference will increase in cost even more.

10 more years of advantage


? post about one of their nodes), has declared that is unimportant, whether Moore's law, availability of predictions for its achievement in the field of cloud technologies (and also that fact that the prices and so decrease, let not so quickly) will die, can promote mass migration of users (including corporate) in clouds (as Ford Model T has promoted distribution of cars).

Than there are more than companies? will move? in cloud, will start using services like IaaS and to integrate the internal networks with the resources located? in the outside world?, especially services of data-centers will become demanded. Well debugged? cloud services?, aiming at more effective activity and reduction of prices, not simply reduce the cost of principal components according to Moore's law? they reduce the prices of all components of infrastructure.

Besides, local players, will be able often to provide to clients even more favorable prices because of difference in rates of national currency and dollar which is used for pricing of cloudy services by the largest world providers.

And the law of Moore does not gather for ash heap of history yet? in Intel declare that will be able to reduce the size of transistors of at least 10 more years.

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